Report 001 · Data through 2026-08-20

Polymarket Copyability Ratings

Thirty-two tracked wallets, graded on one question: could a follower have captured what this wallet did? Profit alone does not answer it.

Wallets graded
32≥50 settled bets
Settled bets
1,739,758BUY, 5–95¢
Capital staked
$362Mnet P&L +$11.2M
Markets resolved
36,518outcome-labelled
Copy episodes
13,842priced at detection

Grade distribution

Grades run A (followable and profitable) to F (not followable, whatever the profit).

A 2 B 2 D 4 F 24
A · clean on every checkB · minor flagD · profitable but compromisedF · not copyable

The finding

Headline result

The most profitable wallet on this list earns an F.

Wallet 0x204f72f3 made $6.2M across 695,627 settled bets — and averages 22,208 fills per active day. That is roughly one trade every four seconds, around the clock. No human follows that, and by the time a follower sees the fill, the price that produced the edge is gone.

Across all 13,842 copy episodes measured at detection price, the one-hour markout was −0.12¢ in the held-out validation window — statistically indistinguishable from buying the same markets at random times. Profit is concentrated in wallets whose edge is execution speed, and execution speed does not transfer to a follower.

Ratings

Sorted by score. ROI is shown two ways on purpose: staked-weighted and equal-weighted. When the two disagree in sign, the record is carried by a handful of large bets rather than a repeatable process.

#GradeWallet SettledWinROI stakedROI equalNet P&L Fills/dayCLV 1hFlags
01 A 0x36a3f174…fafb 737 99.1% +61.2% +74.3% $1.74M 330 +3.42¢ none
02 A 0x07bdcabf…e993 153 64.1% +104.7% +35.2% $1.27M 201 +2.44¢ none
03 B 0xb90494d9…c255 664 91.6% +31.7% +86.9% $181K 145 +1.86¢ single-bet driven
04 B 0xc8075693…c12b 4,203 79.8% +47.8% +74.4% $1.09M 608 +0.14¢ bot pace
05 D 0x006cc834…16ea 322 96.9% +6.6% +8.3% $24K 47 single-bet drivenfavorite heavy
06 D 0x9f2fe025…2ca8 3,702 50.0% +23.1% +5.8% $596K 625 +1.70¢ bot pace
07 D 0x492442ea…3782 578 47.2% +23.0% -6.8% $748K 93 +3.22¢ weighting flip
08 D 0x5d58e38c…9a15 2,957 79.3% +12.8% +72.0% $600K 638 -0.09¢ bot pacenegative CLV
09 F 0xc2e7800b…be51 350 40.3% -15.1% -22.3% -$249K 95 +0.33¢ none
10 F 0x204f72f3…5e14 695,627 53.7% +3.9% +3.2% $6.21M 22,208 bot pace
11 F 0x2005d16a…75ea 770,589 48.4% +1.3% +0.7% $1.32M 18,728 bot pace
12 F 0xee613b3f…debf 45,351 47.8% -1.1% -0.3% -$73K 8,555 bot pace
13 F 0x96489abc…6825 2,055 67.7% +22.0% +0.2% $179K 779 -0.27¢ bot pacenegative CLV
14 F 0xead152b8…c76a 51,694 49.7% -1.4% -6.6% -$95K 8,787 bot pace
15 F 0xee0d153c…57ab 5,308 58.8% +0.0% +2.6% $148 1,914 +1.27¢ bot pacesingle-bet driven
16 F 0x777d9f00…5143 1,123 32.5% -9.5% -40.9% -$91K 376 +1.06¢ none
17 F 0x6a72f618…33ee 3,826 69.0% -7.1% +23.2% -$187K 823 +1.38¢ bot paceweighting flip
18 F 0xb45a797f…192c 3,655 47.8% +5.7% +8.0% $162K 650 -2.70¢ bot pacesingle-bet drivennegative CLV
19 F 0x03e8a544…1697 21,052 41.4% -11.8% -19.5% -$1.00M 641 +0.02¢ bot pace
20 F 0x507e52ef…beae 73,927 48.2% -6.5% +4.2% -$448K 17,387 bot paceweighting flip
21 F 0x5bec79df…b215 665 1.5% -17.4% -96.5% -$104K 350 -0.06¢ negative CLV
22 F 0x8c80d213…02c3 225 0.0% -100.0% -100.0% -$80K 82 -0.68¢ negative CLV
23 F 0x37c1874a…c53a 15,262 47.8% -13.1% +10.2% -$1.19M 2,546 -0.21¢ bot paceweighting flipnegative CLV
24 F 0x2a2c53bd…9bc1 11,216 50.3% +5.7% -0.9% $966K 2,622 +0.08¢ bot pacesingle-bet drivenweighting flip
25 F 0x8f037a2e…64d6 172 54.7% -58.2% +1.9% -$39K 64 +0.44¢ weighting flip
26 F 0x07921379…b778 376 14.6% +15.7% -63.2% $76K 260 +2.28¢ single-bet drivenweighting flip
27 F 0xdb27bf2a…c56e 3,218 42.2% +16.8% -16.8% $281K 1,238 -0.06¢ bot pacesingle-bet drivenweighting flipnegative CLV
28 F 0x6ac5bb06…4b6e 1,729 45.2% -59.8% -9.4% -$397K 994 -0.28¢ bot pacenegative CLV
29 F 0x2b3ff45c…3446 61 19.7% +22.9% -71.9% $343K 143 +2.66¢ single-bet drivenweighting flipthin sample
30 F 0x50b1db13…f076 4,364 7.4% -17.5% -87.6% -$1.12M 733 -1.68¢ bot pacenegative CLV
31 F 0x93abbc02…9723 3,471 33.6% +7.1% -39.4% $67K 645 +1.69¢ bot pacesingle-bet drivenweighting flip
32 F 0xbddf61af…c684 11,126 25.2% +10.1% -41.7% $365K 1,878 -0.11¢ bot pacesingle-bet drivenweighting flipnegative CLV

How a grade is built

Every input is measured from settled outcomes and public order history. Nothing is self-reported.

Realized return

Profit and loss recomputed from entry price and settled outcome, not from the wallet's displayed balance. Staked-weighted and equal-weighted, both reported.

Concentration

Share of total profit produced by the single best bet. Above 30% the record is one lucky position, not a method.

Follow pace

Fills per active day. Above 500 the wallet is machine-operated and a human follower cannot replicate its entries.

Copy price value

Price movement over the hour after our detection, entered at the price a follower could actually have paid — never at the whale's own fill.

Sample floor

Minimum 50 settled bets. Below 100 the wallet carries a thin-sample flag regardless of its record.

Entry level

Average entry in cents. Wallets living above 80¢ post high win rates by construction; the grade discounts this.

What this report does not claim

Detection latency here is one to five minutes. A faster observer might measure different short-horizon values, and nothing in this data speaks to sub-minute copying.

Coverage is not uniform: every wallet is measured across 2 – 19 April 2026 at full fidelity, and eight of them extend through 20 August. Outcome labels cover 36,518 markets and continue to accumulate; grades are recomputed as they land.

A grade of F is not a verdict on a trader. It says the wallet's edge is not transferable to someone watching from outside — which is a statement about copyability, not about skill.